Executive Summary

Q2 2024 results were resilient despite the Francis Scott Key Bridge closure: revenue $501.1M, GAAP diluted EPS $1.96, adjusted EBITDA $124.5M, and free cash flow $58.6M .
Sold 5.8M PAMC tons (2.9M export) with average revenue per ton $66.83, supported by mix shifts toward domestic and crossover metallurgical markets amid higher transport costs .
Bold action on FY24 guidance: raised the bottom end for average coal revenue/ton to $63.50–$66.50 and PAMC sales volume to 24.5–26.0M tons; increased CapEx by $10M to $165–$190M as supply chains eased; Itmann volume maintained at 700–900k tons .
Operations at Baltimore resumed May 20 with full channel restoration June 10, positioning volumes to normalize and enabling potential backlog catch-up; management is pursuing a business interruption recovery claim .
Stock catalysts: raised guidance, contracting momentum (near fully contracted in 2024; 14.5M tons booked for 2025), and domestic demand tailwinds (PJM capacity auction indicating tightening grid and data center-led load growth) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Agility in logistics: “Black swan event… we quickly pivoted to identify an alternate route” and sold ~5.8M tons with ~$59M FCF despite the closure .
Pricing resilience via mix: management focused shipments to domestic and crossover met, lifting realized price; “average price of our domestic tons exceeds our export tons” .
Contracting wins: near fully contracted 2024; 14.5M tons in 2025; new fixed-price multiyear domestic contract for 4M tons through 2028 .

What Went Wrong

Higher unit costs: PAMC average cash cost/ton rose to $39.82 (from $36.33) on lower fixed-cost leverage and inflation .
CMT throughput/income hit: Q2 throughput 2.3M tons vs 5.4M; CMT adjusted EBITDA $5.2M vs $23.9M YoY due to the closure .
Itmann ramp delays: Q2 sales fell to 164k tons on fewer purchased tons and equipment delays, with staffing improved but productivity constrained .

Financial Results

Consolidated headline metrics

Metric	Q2 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024
Total Revenue & Other Income ($USD Millions)	$661.0	—	$501.1
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$4.94	$3.39	$1.96
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$276.0	$182.0	$124.5
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$180.8	$41.0	$58.6
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	41.8% (calc: $276.0/$661.0)	—	24.9% (calc: $124.5/$501.1)

Why: YoY declines reflect reduced export capacity, incremental transport costs (~$10/ton to alternative port), and lower API2/nat gas prices vs 2023; mix and domestic crossover met supported realizations; Q2 FCF remained positive .

Operating/KPI metrics (PAMC + consolidated drivers)

Metric	Q2 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024
PAMC Tons Sold (M tons)	6.4	6.1	5.8
Average Coal Revenue per Ton ($/ton)	$81.27	$68.33	$66.83
Average Cash Cost per Ton ($/ton)	$36.33	$40.29	$39.82
Average Cash Margin per Ton ($/ton)	$44.94	—	$27.01

Why: Cash margin compression driven by higher unit costs (fixed-cost under-absorption, inflation) and increased transport costs on diverted export tons; price supported by mix to domestic/crossover met and modest API2 recovery .

Segment breakdown

PAMC

Metric	Q2 2023	Q2 2024
Total Coal Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$521,176	$384,442
Total Tons Sold (M tons)	6.4	5.8
Average Coal Revenue per Ton ($/ton)	$81.27	$66.83
Average Cash Cost per Ton ($/ton)	$36.33	$39.82
Average Cash Margin per Ton ($/ton)	$44.94	$27.01

CMT (CONSOL Marine Terminal)

Metric	Q2 2023	Q2 2024
Throughput Volume (M tons)	5.4	2.3
Terminal Revenue ($USD Millions)	$31.4	$12.0
CMT Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$23.9	$5.2

Itmann Mining Complex (sales including third-party)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024
Tons Sold (k tons)	193	164

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
PAMC Coal Sales Volume (M tons)	FY 2024	24–26 (reduced from 25–27 in Q1 update)	24.5–26.0	Raised bottom end by 0.5M
Average Coal Revenue per Ton ($/ton)	FY 2024	$62.50–$66.50	$63.50–$66.50	Raised bottom end by $1
PAMC Average Cash Cost per Ton ($/ton)	FY 2024	$37.50–$39.50 (raised by $1 in Q1)	$37.50–$39.50	Maintained
Itmann Coal Sales Volume (k tons)	FY 2024	700–900 (raised in Q1)	700–900	Maintained
Total Capital Expenditures ($M)	FY 2024	$155–$180 (reduced in Q1)	$165–$190	Raised by $10M

Context: Bottom-end lifts reflect earlier-than-expected Baltimore reopening and strong operational performance; CapEx raised as supply-chain bottlenecks eased (equipment deliveries) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2023 and Q1 2024)	Current Period (Q2 2024)	Trend
AI/data center power demand	Expect rising electricity demand; Q1 cited AI servers and utility decisions extending coal fleet; domestic fixed-price deals (950k tons 2026–2028)	PJM 2025/26 capacity auction settled just under $270/MW-day (+800% YoY), tightening grid; management sees AI/EV/data centers extending fossil reliance	Strengthening domestic demand signal
Supply chain/equipment	Itmann delays on equipment deliveries and staffing; withdrew cost guidance	Staffing near full; equipment delays persist; retreat mining to begin; Itmann sales down sequentially	Gradual improvement; execution risk remains
Port of Baltimore	Q1: closure expected through end of May; diverted 600–800k tons/month; plan to catch up	Resumed shipments May 20; full restoration June 10; normalized production expected in H2	Resolved; normalization underway
Pricing/API2 sensitivity	Q1 midpoint based on $110 API2; ~$0.12/ton sensitivity; crossover met demand strong	Midpoint based on $110 API2; current ~120 → potential ~$1 uplift; $0.09 sensitivity cited in call; domestic mix supported realized price	Slightly better price setup
Capital returns	Q4: record FCF; buybacks prioritized; Q1: ~89% FCF to repurchases	YTD buybacks $71M; slowed in Q2 due to uncertainty; exploring refinancing/revolver upsizing/securitization renewal	Continuing, paced by H2 cash flows

Management Commentary

“During the second quarter, CONSOL Energy boasted a strong financial and operational performance… Despite the nearly 2-month closure of the Port of Baltimore export channel… we achieved strong PMC cash margins per ton sold” (James Brock) .
“We sold 5.8 million tons of PMC coal… average coal revenue per tonne sold of $66.83… incurred incremental transportation cost of approximately $10 per ton on those tons redirected to the alternative port in Virginia” (Mitesh Thakkar) .
“We are near fully contracted in 2024… 14.5 million tons contracted for 2025… completed a fixed‑price multiyear contract for 4 million tonnes with a domestic utility through 2028” (Robert Braithwaite/Mitesh Thakkar) .
“We are increasing the bottom end of our average coal revenue per tonne sold range by $1… moving up the bottom end of our PMC sales volume guidance by 0.5 million tonnes… increasing our CapEx guidance range by $10 million” (Mitesh Thakkar) .

Q&A Highlights

Pricing drivers: mix to domestic and crossover met lifted realized price; China a key taker of crossover met, >800k tons YTD .
FY24 price guidance and API2 sensitivity: midpoint based on $110 API2; current ~120 could add ~$1; ~$0.09 sensitivity across portfolio .
2025 book and sensitivity: 14.5M tons contracted; low-$60s at $100 API2; ~$0.14/ton sensitivity on current index-linked volume, scales with added exports .
Capital returns pacing: buybacks slowed in Q2; H2 focus balanced with refinancing, revolver upsizing, and securitization renewal; intent remains to return capital at highest IRR .
Itmann cost curve: productivity to improve with equipment arrivals and retreat mining; staffing near full but guidance depends on stable production .

Estimates Context

S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for CEIX Q2 2024 were unavailable via our SPGI pipeline due to a CIQ mapping issue; therefore a beat/miss assessment versus consensus could not be determined. Values retrieved from S&P Global were not available due to mapping constraints.

Where estimates may need to adjust: Management raised FY24 bottom-end pricing and volume ranges and expects normalized production in H2 post‑Baltimore; models should reflect higher FY24 realized pricing midpoint sensitivity to API2 (~$0.09 per $1), and increased CapEx range ($165–$190M) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Operations normalized post-Baltimore with potential backlog catch-up in H2; volumes guided higher and pricing bottom end raised, indicating improved visibility .
Export pricing leverage: portfolio sensitivity to API2 (~$0.09–$0.14 per $1) and active crossover met placement (China, Egypt, Brazil) support realized pricing trajectory .
Domestic demand tailwinds: PJM capacity auction reset (just under $270/MW-day) and data center load growth may extend coal fleet life and support fixed-price contracting .
Margin watch: unit cost inflation and fixed-cost under-absorption compressed cash margins; as volumes normalize, expect better fixed-cost leverage, but transport costs remain a swing factor .
Itmann execution risk: staffing improved but equipment delivery delays persist; retreat mining slated to enhance productivity—monitor ramp cadence and purchased-coal mix .
Capital returns opportunistic: buybacks continue, but H2 allocation will balance liability management (refinancing, facilities) with repurchases .
Insurance recovery: business interruption claim in process—potential offset to Q2 operational headwinds not yet reflected in results .

Why the Quarter Moved the Numbers

Revenue/EPS/EBITDA compression vs 2023 primarily from temporary export constraints, incremental ~$10/ton transport costs to Virginia ports, and lower benchmark/API2/nat gas prices; mix decisions favored domestic and crossover met to support realized pricing .
Guidance uplift driven by earlier-than-expected Baltimore reopening, resilient pricing, and contracting progress; CapEx raised as equipment deliveries improved, supporting H2 execution .
The narrative shifted toward durable demand signals (PJM auction, AI/data center load), providing a basis for multi-year domestic contracting and export pricing optionality .

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary